Macau's casinos got off to a sluggish June, and Citigroup says the FIFA World Cup is a big reason why — though the bank still expects gaming revenue to bounce back once the tournament wraps.
Key takeaways
- Macau's daily GGR run-rate ran about 20% below May in the first two weeks of June.
- Citi blames the expanded 48-team World Cup (June 11–July 19) for pulling gambling spend away.
- VIP volume fell an estimated 15–18% month-on-month; mass-market GGR dropped 10–13%.
- Citi keeps its June forecast of MOP$19.0 billion (down 10% YoY) and sees a "swift recovery" in mid-July.
Macau's gaming industry has opened June on the back foot, with analysts pinning much of the weakness on the FIFA World Cup. Revenue has dipped below recent levels, but Citigroup still expects a summer rebound, helped by a packed calendar of concerts and events.
Based on industry checks, Citi estimates Macau pulled in roughly MOP$9.0 billion (US$1.12 billion) in gross gaming revenue over the first 14 days of June — an average daily run-rate of about MOP$586 million. That is a clear step down: around 20% below May's MOP$729 million daily pace, and some 16% under the MOP$700 million daily average logged in June's opening week. The bank ties most of the slide to the World Cup, which kicked off on June 11 and runs through July 19.
A bigger tournament, a bigger drag
As reported by Inside Asian Gaming, analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau believe the tournament is siphoning some gambling spend away from Macau's floors. Citi notes the World Cup's expanded format could magnify that effect: this edition runs 48 teams and 104 matches, well above previous tournaments, and the bank has long argued the heftier schedule could weigh on casino spending more than past football events.
Industry data reviewed by Citi showed VIP gaming volume down an estimated 15% to 18% month-on-month in the first half of June, with mass-market GGR off roughly 10% to 13%. VIP hold rates in the second week also looked slightly softer than in the opening week.
The softness was visible even earlier. In June's first seven days, Macau generated an estimated MOP$4.9 billion — about MOP$700 million a day — with Citi also flagging mainland China's university entrance exams on June 7 and 8, when many parents stayed home, as a drag on travel. VIP volume that week was thought to have fallen 5–8% month-on-month, and mass-market revenue 3–8%.
Citi holds its June call
Despite the weak first half, Citigroup has left its June forecast unchanged, still projecting full-month GGR of MOP$19.0 billion — a 10% year-on-year decline. Hitting that would require Macau's casinos to turn over roughly MOP$613 million to MOP$625 million per day for the rest of the month.
The analysts conceded the market faces headwinds beyond football: last June's figures were lifted by concerts from Cantopop star Jacky Cheung, making for a tough comparison this year. Even so, Citi expects upcoming events to cushion the back half of the month.
Entertainment calendar to power the rebound
Several big shows are lined up across Macau in the coming weeks. Galaxy Entertainment is hosting Hong Kong singer Keung To at Galaxy Arena, while Sands China brings Taiwanese singer Wakin Chau to Londoner Arena.
"We believe these could help mitigate the potential GGR decline."
— Citigroup analysts
Looking past June, Choi and Chau forecast GGR down 10% year-on-year in June and 5% in July, before a rebound once the World Cup ends. They expect a "swift GGR recovery" in mid-July, fueled by a run of large-scale events — K-pop acts Babymonster, TWS and Enhypen, concerts by Taiwanese singer Zhao Chuan, and NBA China Games featuring the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks.
For the full year, Citigroup pencils in 6.5% GGR growth in 2026, with about 5.7% growth in the second half. The bank also stayed constructive on Macau gaming stocks, calling any share-price pullback an "enhanced buying opportunity." Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China remain its preferred picks; Wynn Macau, MGM China and Melco kept buy ratings, while SJM stayed its only sell-rated Macau operator.
