Citigroup: Macau Gaming Revenue Slows as the World Cup Kicks Off

Macau's casinos got off to a sluggish June, and Citigroup says the FIFA World Cup is a big reason why — though the bank still expects gaming revenue to bounce back once the tournament wraps.

Macau's gaming industry has opened June on the back foot, with analysts pinning much of the weakness on the FIFA World Cup. Revenue has dipped below recent levels, but Citigroup still expects a summer rebound, helped by a packed calendar of concerts and events.

Based on industry checks, Citi estimates Macau pulled in roughly MOP$9.0 billion (US$1.12 billion) in gross gaming revenue over the first 14 days of June — an average daily run-rate of about MOP$586 million. That is a clear step down: around 20% below May's MOP$729 million daily pace, and some 16% under the MOP$700 million daily average logged in June's opening week. The bank ties most of the slide to the World Cup, which kicked off on June 11 and runs through July 19.

A bigger tournament, a bigger drag

As reported by Inside Asian Gaming, analysts George Choi and Timothy Chau believe the tournament is siphoning some gambling spend away from Macau's floors. Citi notes the World Cup's expanded format could magnify that effect: this edition runs 48 teams and 104 matches, well above previous tournaments, and the bank has long argued the heftier schedule could weigh on casino spending more than past football events.

The bank's caution rests on history. In a note reported on June 11, Citi pointed to UEFA Euro 2024: while that championship was played in June and July, Macau's daily GGR averaged about MOP$514 million, some 17% short of the MOP$620 million daily average for 2024 as a whole. It said comparable dips occurred during the 2018 World Cup and Euro 2016. The 2026 finals, spread across the United States, Canada and Mexico, expand the field from 32 nations to 48 for the first time, and the match count from 64 to 104.

Industry data reviewed by Citi showed VIP gaming volume down an estimated 15% to 18% month-on-month in the first half of June, with mass-market GGR off roughly 10% to 13%. VIP hold rates in the second week also looked slightly softer than in the opening week.

The softness was visible even earlier. In June's first seven days, Macau generated an estimated MOP$4.9 billion — about MOP$700 million a day — with Citi also flagging mainland China's university entrance exams on June 7 and 8, when many parents stayed home, as a drag on travel. VIP volume that week was thought to have fallen 5–8% month-on-month, and mass-market revenue 3–8%.

Strong momentum going into the tournament

The slowdown follows a solid spring. Official figures from the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau (DICJ) put May GGR at MOP$22.61 billion, up 6.7% year-on-year and 13.7% on April. Year-to-date takings through May reached MOP$108.38 billion, 10.9% higher than a year earlier and 86.2% of the pre-pandemic total for January to May 2019. CLSA noted that play picked up late in May, estimating a daily average of MOP$783 million over the final six days of the month.

Before the World Cup got under way, most brokers expected only a mild June dip. CLSA forecast GGR slipping 0.65% year-on-year to MOP$20.9 billion, Morgan Stanley pencilled in a decline of about 1%, Seaport Research Partners projected a 0.3% dip, and J.P. Morgan kept its call for broadly flat revenue in June and July, within a range of plus or minus 2%. Citi's call for a 10% fall was far more cautious than any of those estimates.

Citi holds its June call

Despite the weak first half, Citigroup has left its June forecast unchanged, still projecting full-month GGR of MOP$19.0 billion — a 10% year-on-year decline. Hitting that would require Macau's casinos to turn over roughly MOP$613 million to MOP$625 million per day for the rest of the month.

The analysts conceded the market faces headwinds beyond football: last June's figures were lifted by concerts from Cantopop star Jacky Cheung, making for a tough comparison this year. Even so, Citi expects upcoming events to cushion the back half of the month.

Entertainment calendar to power the rebound

Several big shows are lined up across Macau in the coming weeks. Galaxy Entertainment is hosting Hong Kong singer Keung To at Galaxy Arena, while Sands China brings Taiwanese singer Wakin Chau to Londoner Arena.

Looking past June, Choi and Chau forecast GGR down 10% year-on-year in June and 5% in July, before a rebound once the World Cup ends. They expect a "swift GGR recovery" in mid-July, fueled by a run of large-scale events — K-pop acts Babymonster, TWS and Enhypen, concerts by Taiwanese singer Zhao Chuan, and NBA China Games featuring the Houston Rockets and Dallas Mavericks.

For the full year, Citigroup pencils in 6.5% GGR growth in 2026, with about 5.7% growth in the second half. The bank also stayed constructive on Macau gaming stocks, calling any share-price pullback an "enhanced buying opportunity." Galaxy Entertainment and Sands China remain its preferred picks; Wynn Macau, MGM China and Melco kept buy ratings, while SJM stayed its only sell-rated Macau operator.

Valuation underpins that stance. Choi noted that Macau gaming shares were trading at about 7.3 times forward EV/EBITDA, compared with a long-term average of roughly 11.4 times, leaving room for a re-rating if trading improves after the tournament.

Why the monthly numbers matter

Macau is the only part of China where casinos are legal, and its casino industry is run by six licensed concessionaires. Gaming concessionaires pay a 35% tax on gross gaming revenue plus contributions of up to 5% for social and economic purposes, so any sustained dip in GGR feeds directly into public finances as well as operator earnings. That is why investors track daily run-rates so closely during events such as the World Cup, when a few weeks of weaker play can shift full-month results.